10/23/2026
So yesterday, Nick Del Deo of MoffettNathanson and I held a webinar on where we thought Starlink Mobile was heading and what would be required. Even in the most optimistic view, we both felt that any terrestrial-based network wouldn't need as many cell sites as the big 3 wireless carriers (~75K each). Lo and behold, within hours of our webinar, Bloomberg reported that "people familiar with the matter" said Crown Castle and potentially other tower companies were in talks with Starlink to lease up to 80K sites. (ATC and CCI each have ~40K sites- there is no chance that Starlink leases all of them)
To be candid, it still doesn't make sense. Why would Starlink Mobile need 80,000 sites if D2D (Direct to Device) can provide what they claim is acceptable service to mobile phones outside? 80,000 sites require substantially more capex, opex, and subscribers. For what? To take a share of the $40/month carriers charge their subscribers, on average? And why would Starlink need to deploy traditional coverage sites in rural areas?
And why did SpaceX previously allude in earnings calls to not needing to build a terrestrial network because they could use femtocells on rooftops? What suddenly changed yesterday?
I hope Starlink is serious about 80,000 sites; it's good for consumers, good for the tower industry, bad for the carriers, and good for landowners/building owners. But it seems like exactly what I would do if I wanted to pressure the Big 3 and force one to sign an MVNO deal, too. The discussion is free, the leak to Bloomberg is free, and the impact on the industry is huge.
Perhaps Musk watched the webinar? 😀
(Not written by AI in any way- graphic generated by AI)